Polls - Finally One I Agree With

I may, in the past, have alluded to the fact that I am not all that enamoured with the plethora of public opinion polls. In spite of my taking a number of university courses in statistics and survey design, I remain unconvinced that many of the surveys truly capture the mood of the Canadian public. Part of my discomfort with the surveys may be that the pollsters never seem to call me. Having said that, the Globe and Mail have just released the results of a poll by Nanos that I think is interesting. The poll asked, amongst other questions, what Canadians thought their federal leaders should be focusing on.

In spite of the Conservative's much repeated statements that Canadians are concerned about terrorism and support the government's various interventions, the results from the Nanos poll suggest very clearly that strengthening the economy is far more important. In fact 90% of the respondents indicated that " the party or leader with the best plan for the Canadian economy will be more important in determining who wins than the party with the best plan to fight terrorists" (Globe and Mail). I am impressed and rather surprised with my fellow Canadians. It is good to know that in spite of all the hype in Ottawa about where the priorities are - Canadians when asked recognize that we need to get our own house in order. Just because we have a stable banking system does not mean that we have a healthy economy.

For a political party that has argued that it is particularly skilled at managing the economy - the Conservatives seem to have mismanaged our economy. Because of their insistence that Canada is primarily a resource based economy, they have ignored other sectors. As well they have not invested in the infrastructure. Their insistence that if they cut taxes both at the corporate and personal levels, the economy would thrive demonstrates their archaic and misguided economic thinking. While the budget has not yet been release (yet another example of the government not being on top of things), many of the "goodies" have been released. It would appear that once again the government may have misread what the public wants.

The data from the Nanos poll demonstrates quite clearly that Canadians, if there were to be a surplus in the budget, are far more interested in job creation and infrastructure development than in tax cuts. Even investing in social programs was more of a priority than tax cuts for those who responded to the survey.

While it is possible that Harper will do a 180 degree turn in policy direction, it seems unlikely given his need to maintain his political base that he will become a politician who increases taxes and spends money on helping Canadians. I suspect that neither of the two other leaders have the courage to gamble that there more Canadians than one would have perhaps thought who understand that one needs to spend money to make thing work.

But I can live in hope.