Election #2

Tomorrow, October 19,  is the Canadian federal election. I, like so many Canadians, am more than a little bit tired of all of the commercials either bragging about the various parties' platforms or far too often tearing down someone else's capacity to lead. I am looking forward with great anticipation to being able watch the three national channels analysis of who is winning where. Because I no longer work - I can stay up as late as I want to so that I can absorb every nuance of the coverage. A political junkie's dream!

Unless all of the polls are wrong, it appears to be fairly obvious that Harper and the Conservatives will not do as well as they did last time. While there seems to still be a possibility that that they will get the most seats, it is equally as clear that the two other mainstream parties will refuse to support the Conservatives when Parliament first sits. Knowing Mr. Harper, I think it is more than likely that if the Conservatives win the most seats - he will not re-call parliament for some time in the hopes that the other two parties lose energy and focus in their determination unseat him. In other words, like other times he will run and hide rather than face the consequences of his action.

When the election was first called, it appeared as if the NDP had a reasonable chance of at least becoming the minority government. Mulcair had performed well in the House as the leader of the opposition. He spoke well, with passion and a sense that he knew what was needed to get Canada back on track. However in his desire to become more mainstream and therefore potentially more attractive to more Canadians, the NDP may have lost connection to their roots and their core group of supporters. Mulcair frequently makes the connection between Tommy Douglas (a former leader of the NDP and the acknowledged "father of Medicare"). He should quite frankly be ashamed to do so. The values and policies that shape the current NDP platform have far more in common with Conservative leader Diefenbaker than with Tommy Douglas. In fact one could suggest with some justification that the policies of Conservative leaders Joe Clark or Stanfield (both from the 70's) were far more left of center than those of Mulcair.

The NDP need to "win" in Quebec. In a particularly dastardly (there is no better word for it) political move, Harper raised the issues of the niqab and whether or not we should be concerned that two women, two out of the thousands and thousands of women who have wanted to become Canadian citizens, wanted, because of their religious faith, to have their faces covered during the actual ceremony. Harper raised this concern in Quebec which already had been struggling with this issue. Harper probably did enough damage to the NDP's aspirations in Quebec that the election was lost for the NDP. What should have happened was that other Canadians who are less afraid of their culture being destroyed by another culture needed to stand up and cheer that our politicians were defending our right to be different. That did not happen. The polls reported a slide in popularity for the NDP - particularly in Quebec.

The reality appears to be that if the pundits seem to think that there is a possibility that a party is sliding in the polls, that enough people start to believe that the pundits are right and the slide becomes the truth. We all want to be on the side of the winner.

On the other hand Trudeau and his fellow liberals were almost completely written off four years ago. They became the third party in Parliament and were seen at best, as being ineffective. They, within a ten year period, went through a couple of leaders fairly quickly, each easily succumbing to the Conservatives smear tactics. There was little reason to believe that the young son of a former prime minister, while he might be charming, would suffer any better fate. The fact is that Trudeau didn't get overwhelmed by the negative commercials; he did create a platform that seems to have been developed with some logic and consistency and he has made the promise of change seem like something that can be delivered.

Of course there is the ever present danger that Trudeau might be as politically naive as was Obama. Promising change while still immersed and dependent upon the political system that raised you up ( and the Liberals while they may have changed leaders - are still connected and supported by the same corporate interests as before) is not only fraught with dangers - it is a path almost guaranteed to lead to disappointment and frustration. We all want change - we just want someone else to pay for it. I am not sure if Trudeau knows that or not.

With many Canadians feeling as if something needs to be changed, and the Liberals being a familiar brand (no matter how poor the record may or may not be), it appears as if voting for change - even if it means voting for the devil you know, is more comfortable than voting for the un-tried. I therefore predict that the Liberals will win the most seats in tomorrow's election. It is entirely likely that they may even win a small majority.