Thursday, January 26, 2017

The Dangers of a Single Ideology or Can a One trick Pony ever Change His Mind - part 2



Given that a bully now is in control of the political and economic agenda of the US, Canada needs to decide what to do about it. How do we, as a country, live next door to what has always been a bit of an elephant (we are the mouse) who has fairly frequently been less than careful as to where to put its feet and now appears to not even pretend to care? There are two clear choices - act like the Dalai Lama or become as protectionist and as aggressive as Trump.

The former model suggest that Canada follows its present course of trying to find that impossible balances between the economy growing and protecting the environment, between accepting refugees and overwhelming our capacity to support newcomers, between encouraging those who are different and supportive of those who are afraid of change and of supporting individuals in terms of education and health care while not running out of money. This path would require us to ignore the posturing of Trump and to do what we think is right - knowing that we might get it wrong on occasion.  Canada would continue to be, and even enhance our role of being leaders in the international community when it comes to looking for constructive ways of engaging other countries.

This strategy of giving because it is right to do so, of not fighting back because it is wrong and always looking for the peaceful, non-confrontational approach has not work out that well for Tibet. The people have no power to control their lives or their environment, their culture has been eroded by the thousands of Chinese who have moved into their country and by the foreign laws that have been imposed upon them. Every year it feels as if fewer and fewer countries and individuals can envision a time when Tibet will be free of the Chinese government. The danger of this approach for Canada is that Trump and his minions will see Canada as being even more ineffective and irrelevant. The risk of Canada being consumed by American policies specifically around trade, immigration  and human rights would be overwhelming and perhaps unstoppable. The very fact that the Trudeau government has delayed announcing its peace keeping commitments while waiting for a clearer picture of Trump's international policies suggest that we are already on a slippery path of policy subservience. What about the decriminalization of marijuana or protecting our waterways? Will they be on hold if the US says no? It has happened before.

At the other end of the continuum, Canada could react aggressively to Trump and his apparent plans to impose a tariff on soft wood lumber, demand a bigger cut of the oil that will flow the Trans-Canada's pipeline and renegotiate or dismantle Nafta. For example if a tariff is imposed upon lumber being shipped south - stop shipping it. As before, house builders in the northern States who have become dependent upon our wood to build houses - will have to do without. The last time a tariff was imposed - it was those builders who complained. Perhaps at the same time Canada should impose a tariff on products coming into Canada. This of course would cause immense hardship upon families who depend on the income from our lumber companies to survive and make some of the things that we buy from the USA far more expensive. Not only would the government need to assist those companies but as well would need to create a method by which families and individuals affected would be supported. But it would give the US government a clear message - if you can't negotiate in good faith - go somewhere else. Maybe it is time that we recognize that allowing the US to be our biggest trading partner is a bad idea - especially if they do not respect us.

There are obvious thousands of options along the continuum. But there needs to be a national conversation of how we should respond. Yes - we are always ready to negotiate, always ready to look for ways will enhance both countries. But being a "push-over", of accepting a bad deal because any deal is better than nothing might not be the best option.  Somehow, while remaining true to our convictions - we need to be clear that any trade war will affect their economy too. In spite of the USA's greater economic size - we must see ourselves as equals. Trump can only negotiate from a position of power if we allow him to do so.

We teach our children that we, as a society, need to stand up to bullies. Perhaps it is time that the adults started to do what we tell our kids to do.

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