Green Party - Relax, Take a Deep Breath and Don't Start to Celebrate

There are now two Green Party members sitting in the House of Commons. Oh goody!!

Yesterday in a federal by-election in the riding of Nanaimo/Ladysmith the Green candidate was elected. I cannot imagine that anyone was greatly surprised although I assume that a number of people are disappointed and perhaps even alarmed. They too should relax. The Greens are not on the path to become the next ruling party of Canada; the world as those who are disappointed know it, has not come to an end.

It was almost predictable that at least some of the people of southern Vancouver Island would vote green, they did so in the most recent provincial election. The real test for the Greens is not collecting the votes of the pleasant, relaxed, hyper environmentally vigilant residents of the frequently balmy southern portions of the island, but rather how the residents of the northern parts of the island whose economy is focused on resource extraction will vote. The singular focus on saving the environment with little attention paid to any sort of transition period for those who depend on oil either for income or heat is not an attractive selling point. Trying to imagine the voters of Alberta voting Green simple boggles the imagination.

With the Green Party now the official opposition in Prince Edward Island and this most recent win, there may be some who will predict a significant gain in federal Green seats in the upcoming election. There may be some who, remembering the orange wave led by Jack Layton that came close to forming an NDP government as an example, will argue that the Green Party are now poised to do the same thing. As much as I like Elizabeth May, she is no Jack Layton. Even more importantly, for many Canadians, the Green Party's only track record is being a single person preaching to a generally disinterested public. I personally do not think that is enough to convince me that the Green Party has the capacity to do the work that is required to run the country.

However, there will be lots of Canadians who see this recent Green win as a sign that their time has come. They will pat themselves on the back and ride the coattails of Green euphoria. The will do so in spite of the fact three or four provinces are refusing to agree to any plan to reduce our collective carbon output, that there is little sign that the average Canadian is prepared to reduce their consumption of the planet's natural resources or that we are prepared to depose of any politician who does not make the environment a priority.

It is exciting that the Green Party got another seat. But do not celebrate. Nothing has changed. People will need to work even harder, in the areas of Canada that do not naturally gravitate to a Green perspective if the Green Party has a hope of winning a significant number of seats. It might take another two or three election cycles before the party can have an effect on government policies.

I do not think we have 10 or 12 years left to change the world.

The real winners in the federal election in Nanaimo/Ladysmith may be the Conservatives. They did not lose any of their core supporters and the centre/near left voter group was fragmented. If that happened consistently across the country, the Conservatives could pick up a few seats.