Warning - Flying Pigs Seen in Alberta!

Thirty days ago any reasonable political pundit would have placed the odds of the Conservatives being defeated in the Alberta election as being about the same as pigs learning to fly. I suspect that the possibility that the N.D.P. could form a majority government was not even on the radar.  If I was living in Alberta  today - I might be looking up just a bit more than usual. Just in case there were still some pigs flying in the sky.

For many people in Alberta this morning, waking up after a month of growing anticipation and then last night's excitement, it must be still difficult to believe that not only is change possible but that it started to happen last night. I can remember that same sense of exhilaration when the NDP defeated the Ontario Liberals in 1990. We all thought it was going to be the coming of a new age. We were wrong.

Within days of the NDP forming the government in Ontario, various corporate groups, organizations  and supporters were publishing articles, newspaper columns and even putting up billboards expressing concern that Ontario was about to head down some dangerous socialist paths. That is already happening in Alberta. Those involved in the oil industries have been threatening for the last week what would happen if the NDP were elected. For example Rafi Tahmazian who is a portfolio manager with Canoe Financial in Calgary has said "As an investor in the oilpatch, you're going to get your teeth kicked in"(CBC). Threats of jobs loss, of companies moving out of the province, of greater unemployment and even fewer corporate donations to charities have all been thrown at the Albertan electorate. The new government in Alberta will need to hold to true to its values in what will be a rather bumpy and I suspect mean spirited ride. Conservatives and multinational corporations are not gracious losers.

The other similarity between Ontario and Alberta is that in 1990 Ontario was starting to experience an economic downturn. This made it difficult for the ruling party to implement some of the needed programs and policy changes that they had promised. Alberta is already in some financial difficulty. If people are hoping to see some quick fixes and some near miraculous changes to the economy - that is not going to happen in the near future. Again the party needs to keep focused on its long term vision and to ignore the short term naysayers.

No one should assume that a NDP win in Alberta means that there is a shift in how the country as a whole will vote in the fall. The election of a new government had far more to do with the public's dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and their attitude than it did with any attraction to a left leaning future. The Albertan NDP's platform is a far cry from the near socialist platforms of Tommy Douglas or David Lewis. In fact it resembles Peter Lougheed's (Premier of Alberta from 1971 to 1985) far more than something from the CCF. However given the changing demographics in Alberta with an increasing number of immigrants and young people, it does suggest that these groups of people will vote when there is someone to vote for. Perhaps both the National Liberals and NDP parties should take note of that fact.

I am envious of Albertans this morning. There is the possibility that something neat will start to happen in that province. While oil, at least in the foreseeable future, will be important, perhaps it is finally time to determine how that resource can be used to benefit Albertans (and therefore all of Canada).

In the meantime, for all of those who are digging deep into the ground - please contact me if there are any signs that hell froze over - even if it was just for a day.